
India's fertiliser subsidy bill for FY26 may exceed the Rs 1.67 lakh crore budget estimate because global DAP prices have risen about 23% since April, from about $650/t to over $800/t. The government is considering a special package for fertiliser companies.
India imports about two-thirds of its roughly 10 million t annual DAP consumption.
Rising subsidy support keeps Indian DAP buying strong and supports global phosphate prices. Import dependence means the price spike passes directly into Indian demand.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.