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The euro, sterling and Swiss franc fell against the dollar after Credit Suisse shares dropped about 20% following investor refusal of more backing. Markets cut the odds of a 50 basis point ECB hike and the dollar index rose to 104.65.
A stronger dollar against major currencies makes US commodity exports less competitive abroad and tends to pressure grain and meal prices, while reduced rate-hike expectations weigh on the euro.
rte.ieRTÉ NewsMar 15, 2023After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Credit Suisse's ~20% share plunge on 2023-03-15 triggered risk-off flows into the dollar and out of the euro, while cutting odds of a 50bp ECB hike.
