Turkey's state grain agency TMO launched two international tenders to sell 500,000 tonnes of wheat, 400,000 tonnes of food wheat and 100,000 tonnes of durum, on November 17 and 18. USDA FAS puts Turkey's 2026 wheat crop at a record 23 million tonnes and projects imports falling 56% to 2.8 million tonnes in 2026/27.
Turkey shifting from importer to exporter removes a source of global wheat demand and adds supply to the Black Sea and Mediterranean market, which is bearish for wheat prices.
After 379 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.