
The dollar index rose above 103 to its highest level in over a year after hotter-than-expected October inflation pushed US Treasury yields above 5%. Futures priced about an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike in December, and crude oil swung on shifting signals about the Iran conflict.
Tighter US policy expectations and a stronger dollar pressure dollar-priced commodities and metals, while crude moves tied to Iran add energy-price volatility that feeds into biofuel and feed costs.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.