
Robust demand for Argentine corn is underpinned by USDA raising Argentina's production estimate to 57 million tonnes and exports to 40 million tonnes. USDA also cut U.S. corn production to 403.7 million tonnes and exports to 83.19 million tonnes, leaving ending stocks at 44.7 million tonnes and supporting Chicago prices.
Argentine corn trades at a $10-$16 per tonne discount to U.S. corn and $3-$8 per tonne versus Brazilian corn.
A tighter U.S. balance sheet and cheaper Argentine supply shift export demand toward Argentina, supporting Chicago corn prices while keeping Argentine FOB offers competitive for feed buyers.
After 737 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.