
Turkey's State Grain Board (TMO) has launched tenders to export 500,000 tonnes of wheat, 400,000 tonnes milling and 100,000 tonnes durum, to reduce a domestic surplus after a record 23 million tonne harvest in 2026. USDA FAS forecasts Turkish wheat imports falling 56% to 2.8 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year.
Turkey shifting from a major importer to an exporter removes import demand and adds supply to the Black Sea and global wheat trade, which is bearish for wheat prices.
After 379 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.