
Russian export prices for 12.5%-protein wheat fell last week as demand weakened amid expectations of peace talks on Ukraine. IKAR lowered its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat export potential to 39.5 million tonnes from 42 million tonnes, while Baltic ports have taken on most grain shipments after disruption in the Azov-Black Sea basin.
Weaker demand and reduced export capacity put downward pressure on Russian wheat prices and may increase the volume competing for domestic storage and sales channels.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.