
The USDA's November report raised 2026/27 global wheat supply and ending stocks by 6.4 million and 4.8 million tonnes, while cutting world wheat trade due to lower Russian and Ukrainian exports. Global soybean output was cut by 2 million tonnes to 442.5 million, while global rice ending stocks were raised.
Higher global wheat and rice stocks and lower Black Sea exports send mixed signals, with ample rice and wheat supply easing prices. Tighter soybean output supports soybean and soymeal prices for feed buyers.
After 1,011 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.