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May WTI futures settle at −$37/bbl as storage at Cushing fills.
After 1,159 past macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.5%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 204 past macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.7% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.8%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Collapsing pandemic-era demand left Cushing storage nearly full, so holders of expiring May WTI contracts had nowhere to take delivery and dumped them, driving settlement to −$37/bbl and directly causing the extreme 5-day decline.
Collapsing pandemic-era demand left Cushing storage nearly full, so holders of expiring May WTI contracts had nowhere to take delivery and dumped them, driving settlement to −$37/bbl and directly causing the extreme 5-day decline.
Cushing storage nearing capacity amid the COVID demand collapse forced May WTI holders to liquidate before expiry, driving the front-month settlement to −$37/bbl; the 1-day move ending 2020-04-21 directly reflects this supply-glut-driven contract dislocation and its spillover into the next contract.
Same-day WTI settle at -$37/bbl signaled a storage-driven crude crash, pulling diesel futures lower via input cost and panic sentiment.
The collapse of WTI to negative prices on 2020-04-20 reflected a severe COVID-driven demand shock and storage glut, which spilled over into refined products and triggered heavy selling in ULSD futures the next day.
The collapse of WTI to negative prices on 2020-04-20 reflected a severe COVID-driven demand shock and storage glut, which spilled over into refined products and triggered heavy selling in ULSD futures the next day.
