WTI, Brent Notch 15% Monthly Gain on Tightening OPEC-Plus Supply

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Aug 23, 2022Oil jumps nearly 4% on possible OPEC+ supply tightening | Reuters+5.3%
• Aug 1, 2023Oil posts fifth week of gains on signals of tighter supply+0.2%
• Jan 26, 2024Crude oil prices today: WTI, Brent on pace for weekly gain-4.6%
• May 31, 2021Canadian dollar on track for monthly gain as current account swings to surplus - The Globe and Mail+4.4%
• Nov 30, 2016Dollar surges to 8-1/2-month high against yen on OPEC deal+12.5%

After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Aug 23, 2022Oil jumps nearly 4% on possible OPEC+ supply tightening | Reuters+7.6%
• Aug 1, 2023Oil posts fifth week of gains on signals of tighter supply+0.6%
• Jan 26, 2024Crude oil prices today: WTI, Brent on pace for weekly gain-2.4%
• Sep 1, 2023US crude futures climb over $2 per barrel, notch third monthly hike+4.0%
• May 28, 2025Oil gains on supply concerns, investors await July OPEC+ output decision+3.7%

After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.

• Sep 29, 2023GLOBAL LNG-Asia spot prices hit 7-month high on rising demand, Europe supply worries-12.8%
• May 28, 2025Oil gains on supply concerns, investors await July OPEC+ output decision+0.9%
• May 22, 2026Brent’s $100 Forecast May Understate the Risk of a Tighter Oil Market | Investing.com AU-9.5%
• Oct 6, 2023Commodity sector supported by peak rates, tight supply focus | Saxo+5.9%
• May 19, 2021Stable prices suggest sufficient supply of animal protein and by-product - Benison Media-1.3%