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JRC's August assessment reports El Niño-linked crop failures in Central America and East Africa. Southern Africa's 2026 cereal output is about 10% above average, but drier-than-average conditions are forecast for the October-December planting season.
Heavy rains are expected to bring flooding to East Africa rather than relief.
Regional crop losses and a drier Southern African planting season could raise maize import demand and firm prices, though the region is a small share of global trade.
在过去 1,465 次看涨的天气事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%(54% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.9%),20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
在过去 1,072 次看涨的天气事件之后,小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%(55% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.3%),20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。