
Feed wheat in Rio Grande do Sul rose from R$ 1,230 to R$ 1,255 per tonne CIF over the week, per Safras & Mercado. Mill-grade wheat held at R$ 1,550-1,555 per tonne CIF, and TF Agroeconômica estimates only about 150,000 tonnes of Rio Grande do Sul wheat meets milling standards.
Conab also cut its 2026 national wheat crop estimate to 5.26 million tonnes, 33.2% below 2025, and raised its import forecast to 8.94 million tonnes.
A smaller Brazilian wheat crop and higher import needs support feed wheat prices and widen the premium for milling quality, tightening feed-grain supply in the region. Buyers of feed wheat should expect firm prices while imports fill the gap.
After 772 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.