Brazil's fertilizer imports fell 14.7% year on year to 32.68 million tonnes in January to October 2026, the lowest for that period since 2021. Domestic deliveries and national production also declined, and high prices, high interest rates and tight credit may lead farmers to delay purchases.
Lower import demand from Brazil eases global nutrient prices in the short term, but delayed fertilization for the 2026/27 crop could cut yields and later raise demand for feed grains.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.