Industry insiders say Russian attacks in November have knocked around 50 per cent of Ukrainian companies' vegetable oil production capacity out of action. Several processors, including Kernel, Delta Wilmar Ukraine and Nezhynsky Fat Processing Plant, have ceased operations, and attacks are continuing.
The article argues the disruption could also benefit neighbouring Moldova.
Losing a large share of Ukrainian crushing capacity cuts global sunflower oil and meal supply, which lifts prices for sunflower products and competing vegetable oils and meals. Some demand may shift to Moldovan or other origins.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.