Global prices, bumper crop, monsoon bring relief: Farm clouds begin to clear

After 13 past neutral macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -2.0% to +0.2%), and -2.0% over 20.

• Mar 14, 2023Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility | IFPRI-2.1%
• Jun 27, 2019Markets analysis: cropping margins for 2020 - Farmers Weekly-8.5%
• Jun 4, 2018Market Outlook Considerations for Week Beginning June 4, 2018+0.2%
• May 14, 2018Inflation forces building+0.7%
• May 31, 2018Should U.S. Farmers Fret Over Falling Ag Currencies?+0.2%

After 43 past macro events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -2.0% to +2.3%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Jul 19, 2024Commodity prices falling for very different reasons - PricePedia+5.0%
• Nov 14, 2025Thai rice sector in crisis as yields fall, costs rise and export prices hit 15-year low-0.9%
• Mar 30, 2017Rise prices rise in India, Thailand on stronger currencies+3.1%
• Aug 21, 2025Japan core inflation dips to lowest since March as rice prices cool-4.4%

After 15 past neutral macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -2.1% to +0.1%), and -3.2% over 20.

• Apr 9, 2026U.S. dairy market structure shifts to short on protein, long on butterfat, by: Corey Geiger - Dairy Producer-1.4%
• Aug 31, 2026Kiwi braces for RBNZ decision, Aussie tries to steady after setback - Markets - Business Recorder-2.9%
• Feb 15, 2022Inflation, interest rates, labor and logistics will marginalize higher milk prices+0.3%
• Jan 25, 2023Strong dairy product exports impact U.S. milk prices – AgriNews+0.3%
• Apr 18, 2022High costs expected to stress dairy margins | Capital Press-0.0%