
University of Wisconsin analyst Mark Stephenson says US dairy consumption grew in 2021 but volumes fell about 2% in 2022 as product prices rose roughly 22%. Dairy cow numbers peaked and then declined before flattening, and 2022 milk output is expected to be slightly higher than 2021.
Flat cow numbers and modest production growth keep milk supply tight, while high feed prices limit milk-per-cow gains and support feed demand.
After 15 past neutral macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -2.1% to +0.1%), and -3.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.