Russia's government is using a purchase programme to stabilise producer prices, and detours to Baltic ports are taking time and adding cost. German spot wheat fell after the November WASDE moved the market, and Ukraine's grain exports have slumped amid Black Sea insecurity.
A Russian export-tax increase and state buying would restrict wheat export flows and firm prices, while Ukraine's export slump tightens global supply.
After 185 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.