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The European Commission's outlook estimates EU cereal production in 2026/27 at 262 million tonnes, down 9.6% from the previous year and 4.7% below the five-year average. Extreme heat and severe drought in key producing regions hit summer crops, with maize the most affected, while oilseeds have shown resilience.
A sharp EU cereal shortfall tightens feed grain supply and supports prices for corn and barley, raising import demand from outside the bloc. Oilseed resilience limits the pass-through to meal prices.
3tres3.comNov 5, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Watch the 39-second version · Why EU cereal production is forecast down 9.6% in 2026/27
