USDA's November 12 Grain Transportation Report shows Illinois wheat barge costs toward export facilities rose 49.9% in Q3 2026 to $28.28 per metric ton. Total water-route transport costs to Veracruz, Mexico rose 24% for wheat and 18% for corn and soybeans.
Only 23 oceangoing grain vessels loaded in the U.S. Gulf in the week ending November 5, 30% fewer than a year earlier.
Higher freight costs widen the gap between Gulf export prices and inland origin prices, cutting the net returns to Illinois farmers and raising delivered costs for Mexican buyers. Fewer Gulf loadings point to weaker near-term export demand for US grain.
After 137 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.