
The EIA put U.S. on-highway diesel at $6.127 a gallon for the week of November 9, down from a September peak of $6.529 but about 60% above a year earlier. Heating oil futures were near $4.27 a gallon, 18.8% below their September high.
The IEA said Russian energy attacks continue to constrain diesel supply to international markets.
Wholesale diesel is falling, but retail prices lag and remain high, keeping transport and processing costs elevated for feed buyers. Diesel supply tightness from Russia could limit further declines.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.