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The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to exceed demand in the fourth quarter, forecasting 105 million barrels per day of supply against 103.3 million of demand. That would be a surplus of about 1.7 million barrels per day, compared with an estimated deficit in the third quarter.
Analysts note the surplus depends on OPEC flows normalizing, which remains uncertain amid the Iran war.
A crude surplus pushes oil benchmarks lower, but tight diesel supply and inefficiencies mean refined fuel costs may not fall as much. Feed buyers face limited relief on freight and processing energy costs.
morningstar.comNov 13, 2026After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
