The American Soybean Association warned that a request from five governors for waivers from 2027 renewable fuel blending obligations could strike a major blow to US soybean markets. Louisiana and Alabama governors petitioned EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin on Nov.
9, with Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi also supporting the request. The EPA's 2027 requirement is 25.98 billion RINs.
Waivers would cut biofuel demand for soybean oil and reduce crush-driven soybean meal supply constraints, so they are bearish for soybean oil and soybeans. Feed buyers would see softer soy product prices if the waivers are granted.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.