
In the last weeks of October, imported Mercosur skim and whole milk powder and mozzarella lost their cost advantage over Brazilian dairy products. The dollar strengthened sharply against the real after a period of political uncertainty, raising the landed cost of imports, while international milk powder prices also shifted.
Imports becoming more expensive than domestic dairy reduces import competition and can support Brazilian dairy prices and demand for domestic milk powders and cheese.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.