
The dollar index surged after US October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, above economists’ estimates, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Markets raised the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, while the euro weakened against the dollar.
A stronger dollar can raise the cost of dollar-priced feed commodities for buyers using other currencies and may weigh on import demand. Expectations of higher US interest rates supported the dollar and pressured the euro.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.