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Gold fell as the dollar and Treasury yields firmed after a US inflation report. Traders slightly raised bets on a 25-basis-point Fed cut in September to 69%, while the odds of a 50-basis-point cut fell to 31%.
Stronger inflation data reduces the chance of aggressive Fed easing, which supports the dollar and pressures dollar-priced commodities.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.