
The dollar rose across major pairs as US 10-year Treasury yields moved above 3%, reflecting Fed rate-hike expectations. EUR/USD traded near 1.2176 ahead of the ECB decision, which was expected to be dovish with little new guidance.
Higher US yields and a stronger dollar tend to pressure dollar-priced commodities and make US exports less competitive, while a dovish ECB reinforces euro weakness against the dollar.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.