
Russian state grain purchase interventions began on 29 October 2026 with a planned volume of up to 3 million tonnes of class 3-4 wheat and rye, at 11,100 roubles per tonne excluding VAT. Purchases slowed sharply, with 5,400 tonnes bought on 9 November, and the intervention fund stands at 3.7 million tonnes.
Unsold surplus grain that cannot be exported is estimated at 42 million tonnes.
Small state buying does little to absorb the large surplus that exporters cannot move, so domestic wheat prices stay under pressure and support for global wheat values remains limited.
After 122 past bearish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.