Conab cut its 2026/27 Brazilian grain production forecast by 1 million tonnes to 366.1 million tonnes, though this is still 1.3% above the previous season. The agency cites irregular rainfall, high temperatures and El Niño effects, with the South too wet and parts of the North and Northeast too dry.
The reduction is small and still shows growth year on year, so it has little effect on global grain prices. Regional weather splits are the factor to watch for any further downgrades.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.