
Contacts report strong milk output in California and steady production in New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado, while Pacific Northwest output has declined as avian influenza cases spread. Condensed skim milk remains tight, and some manufacturers are turning to nonfat dry milk to fill gaps.
Tight condensed skim supply pushing buyers toward nonfat dry milk could support NFDM demand, while avian influenza in the Northwest is a localized risk to milk output.
After 22 past neutral disease events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -1.4% to +0.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.