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Stay-at-home orders and social distancing across the US are shifting how consumers buy beef and dairy. Futures and fed cattle prices fell to $105 to $112 live, while wholesale boxed beef Choice and Select cuts jumped more than $43 in the week of March 20.
CattleFax analyst Lance Zimmerman warned that food service losses will weigh on beef demand later in 2020.
Weaker expected beef demand and a divergence between cash cattle and boxed beef prices point to lower cattle values and potentially reduced feedlot placements, which pressure feed ingredient demand.
agproud.comDavid CooperMar 27, 2020After 70 past bearish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.0%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 46 past bearish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.6%), and +1.8% over 20.
After 22 past neutral disease events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -1.4% to +0.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Economists warn that food service losses from shutdowns will weigh on beef demand later in 2020, a bearish demand sentiment factor for feeder cattle.
