CONAB's second survey projects a record 2026/27 Brazilian grain crop of 366.1 million tons, up 1.3% from last season but down 0.3% from October. Soybeans are estimated at 181.6 million tons on 49.3 million hectares, and the total corn crop at 148 million tons.
Planting is progressing, with weather still the main watch point.
A record Brazilian crop adds to export supplies and weighs on soybean and corn prices. Weather during early development could still change the outcome.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.