
CONAB cut its 2026/27 Brazilian grain crop projection from 367.1 million to 336.1 million tons, citing climate effects. The agency and IBGE both point to El Niño affecting rainfall and crop yields.
IBGE expects a 2.6% decline in the 2027 harvest.
A lower Brazilian crop forecast tightens export supplies of soybeans and corn, which supports prices. El Niño risk adds to the downside in yields.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.