Conab cut its 2023/24 Brazilian grain and fiber harvest estimate to 312.3 million tonnes from 316.7 million. Extreme weather linked to El Niño, including heavy rain in Rio Grande do Sul and drought in the Central-West, drove the revision.
The soybean estimate was also trimmed to 160.2 million tonnes.
Lower Brazilian soybean and corn output reduces global export supplies and supports prices for both crops. Feed buyers should expect firmer soybean meal and corn costs.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.