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The EU will ban all imports of Russian LNG from January 1, 2027, with some long-term contract holders allowed to divert cargoes until late July 2027. Asian spot LNG buyers are entering the January trading cycle, and the JKM-TTF spread has widened, closing arbitrage.
Tighter LNG supply to Europe and Asia raises gas costs for nitrogen fertilizer and energy-intensive processing, which supports fertilizer and feed input prices.
spglobal.comTakeo Kumagai, Atsuko Kawasaki, Gwen Teo, Ying Ting LewNov 13, 2026After 13 past bullish policy events, Natural Gas moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -2.4% to +4.5%), and +5.3% over 20.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
