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Favorable autumn weather and improved moisture have the US hard red winter wheat crop off to a generally encouraging start across the Great Plains. USDA rated HRW condition as good-to-excellent as of Nov.
8 at 51% in Kansas, 36% in Oklahoma and 42% in Texas, with ratings improving week over week in most states. Delayed planting and replanting in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma leave some fields less developed heading into winter.
Crop conditions above the long-term averages in several key states support expectations of adequate HRW supply, which is modestly bearish for KWHEAT and wheat-based feed alternatives. Late-planted fields and dependence on spring rains leave yield risk that could shift sentiment.
world-grain.comMatt NoltemeyerNov 13, 2026After 70 past bearish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and -1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
