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An S&P Global Energy analysis presented at Grain Academy 2026 in Sofia says strong harvests in Canada and South America are helping global grain markets absorb disrupted Black Sea exports. Global wheat production is expected to exceed consumption for a second consecutive season, but restricted access to Russian and Ukrainian supplies keeps buyers dependent on alternative origins.
Blocked Black Sea shipments tighten availability from two major exporters, so buyers shift to other origins and feed formulations, which supports prices for wheat and corn despite a global surplus. The outcome depends on how long the shipping constraints last into the Northern Hemisphere spring.
millermagazine.comNewclick Dijital Reklam AjansıNov 13, 2026millermagazine.comNewclick Dijital Reklam AjansıNov 13, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
