
The IEA's October Oil Market Report says global oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels per day in October to 105.36 mb/d, led by Gulf exports. OPEC+ output rose 2.39 mb/d, driven by Saudi Arabia and Iraq, while non-OPEC+ supply fell by 90,000 b/d.
The agency expects supply to recover further in 2027 but flags Middle East risks.
A faster-than-expected supply recovery eases crude tightness, which lowers energy and diesel costs for feed producers and feeds through to fertiliser and freight prices. The risks the IEA flags could reverse that easing.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.