Crude oil prices were on course for a second weekly loss, with Brent at $95.87 and WTI at $88.49 after two days of gains. Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz continued, and Houthi strikes targeted Saudi energy sites, including a pumping station on the East-West pipeline and a facility at Yanbu.
Chances of a peace deal with Iran were described as remote.
Continued disruption to Gulf crude and fuel flows keeps energy costs elevated, which raises freight, fertilizer and biofuel input costs for feed producers. Prices remain well above pre-war levels, but the weekly trend is lower.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.