
Exceptional drought expanded to cover nearly half of Arkansas (49.53%, up from 39.72% a week earlier) and worsened in Louisiana, Mississippi, southeastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas. Drought in the eastern Corn Belt intensified across Illinois and southern Lower Michigan, while national drought coverage fell to 41.68%.
Dry conditions in the mid-South and eastern Corn Belt can trim yields for corn, soybeans and cotton and tighten feed grain supplies in those areas. The national improvement limits the price impact, so the effect is mainly regional.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.