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Five of the top 18 corn-growing states start 2026 with D3 extreme or D4 exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Texas and Colorado are named, and drought is more intense and widespread than at the start of 2025.
Illinois has over 5% in D3 drought.
Severe drought in major corn states raises concern about yield risk for the 2026 crop if conditions do not improve before planting. Markets may price in some risk premium.
agriculture.comNatalina Sents BauschJan 10, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
