
The NIDIS Drought Status Update for the North Central U.S. reports that drought severity and extent were virtually unchanged despite recent rain, with 100% of Montana and North Dakota, 97% of Minnesota and 57% of Iowa in drought. Drought conditions are expected to persist into next year, with some short-term rain chances in the Upper Missouri Basin.
Persistent drought across the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains threatens corn, soybean and forage yields and supports feed grain prices. Ongoing dryness keeps the supply risk premium in corn and soybeans and adds to cattle feed and pasture stress.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.