Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry and Alabama Governor Kay Ivey asked the EPA for relief from its 2027 Renewable Fuel Standard requirements during the week of November 9. A November 11 farmdoc daily analysis by Todd Hubbs and Scott Irwin estimated that cutting the 2027 biomass-based diesel obligation to domestic capacity could remove about 5 billion pounds of feedstock demand, and holding requirements at 2026 levels could put about 14 billion pounds at risk.
Biomass-based diesel mandates are a major outlet for soybean oil, so any rollback would reduce demand and weigh on soybean oil prices and crush margins. The decision is still pending, so the price effect depends on how deep the EPA cuts the obligation.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.