Oklahoma State crop marketing specialist Todd Hubbs reviewed the November WASDE, which lowered the US corn yield and raised soybean export projections. The USDA also cut HRW wheat exports by 10 million bushels, while Australian and Argentine wheat production estimates rose.
Prices for corn and soybeans have since flattened or pulled back.
Lower US HRW export volumes and larger Southern Hemisphere wheat crops keep pressure on wheat prices. The corn yield cut is supportive, but the market has largely absorbed it.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.