
Chicago soybean futures turned partly higher after the November WASDE trimmed US soybean forecasts less than the trade expected, with US soybean output rising only to 124.48 million mt versus 125.78 million expected. US ending stocks are estimated at 8.17 million mt, down from 8.58 million a year earlier, as exports run strong.
Brazil's soybean planting is accelerating and EU supply is rising on increased export pressure from third countries.
Tighter US stocks support soybean and meal prices, but Brazilian meal gaining share over Indian product shows export competition is capping premiums for buyers in Europe.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.