Hormuz and the US vote hold global trade in check

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 1, 2026How the attack on Iran could impact the global oil market and economy+35.6%
• Apr 1, 2026How the Iran War Is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply-6.6%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+16.5%
• Feb 24, 2022Canadian dollar hits two-month low as Russia invades Ukraine - The Globe and Mail+20.2%
• Mar 2, 2026Oil Prices Surge as Hormuz Disruptions Threaten Global Supply, Analysts Warn - Bloomberg+35.6%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jul 30, 2026Strait of Hormuz and drone threats to global shipping-8.4%
• Mar 1, 2026How the attack on Iran could impact the global oil market and economy+31.0%
• Apr 1, 2026How the Iran War Is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply-12.2%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+12.3%
• Feb 24, 2022Canadian dollar hits two-month low as Russia invades Ukraine - The Globe and Mail+18.2%