Dollar back to R$5.60 with inflation data and fiscal package; climate alert grows in Brazil

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Sep 2, 2021Climate Forecast Catalysts to Produce a Wet Spring Forecast for Brazil Are Not Developing - Climate Impact Company-1.5%
• Dec 10, 2019Climate change and the threat to global breadbaskets - IIASA+2.8%
• Feb 4, 2022Late-Winter and Early Growing Season Climatological Outlooks for 2022 | Integrated Crop Management+1.9%
• Jul 20, 2021After second wave, patchy monsoon rains are raising growth and inflation worries for India-1.1%
• Apr 8, 2024Corn Growing Conditions Worsen in Brazil-0.9%

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Apr 6, 2023Brazil: Rains at the end of March collaborated with the soybean crop in Rio Grande do Sul-0.4%
• Jun 9, 2021Brazil Declares First Drought Alert in a Century: Weighs on Crop Production-1.4%
• Apr 6, 2026Climate concerns second corn crop and soybean harvest advances to 82% in Brazil-1.8%
• May 14, 2018Drought damages big portion of corn in Brazil's Mato Grosso+1.7%
• Mar 25, 2025Brazil faces inflation risks as surging corn prices eclipse rice plunge-1.5%

After 244 past bearish events of any kind, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +0.9%), and +0.1% over 20.

• May 20, 2017GRAIN MARKETS: Cold and wet forecast for Midwest lifts corn-0.5%