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India's ethanol blending rate could fall to around 15% in the 2026-27 supply year as El Niño-related weather threatens maize, rice and other feedstocks. The government has excluded sugarcane-juice and B-heavy molasses-based ethanol from procurement tenders.
Tighter feedstock supply means India will buy more maize and rice for ethanol, lifting domestic grain prices and cutting its ethanol output, which weakens demand for feedstock and reduces crude import substitution.
agriinsite.comChiniMandiNov 12, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
