
Front-month ICE Brent rose $1.21 to $92.76 a barrel after Iran said it would not let enriched nuclear material leave the country and warned of consequences for new US strikes. Rising US crude stocks, reported by the API at 9 million barrels, and recovering OPEC output limited the gains.
Supply risk from Hormuz routes supports crude, but a US stock build and returning Gulf output point to softer pressure. Energy direction affects feed-mill and transport costs.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.