
Rabobank says global dairy markets softened in Q3 and fell sharply in Q4 2025 as ample milk supplies pressured prices. EU and UK milk growth was strongest since 2017 in October, US milk flows grew over 3% for five months, and the Big 7 output is forecast to slow to 0.12% growth in 2026.
Sustained milk growth from major exporters and falling Irish and Dutch farmgate prices point to weaker dairy commodity prices, reducing demand for dairy-linked feed ingredients.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.