USDA raised its 2018 US milk production forecast to 219 billion pounds, up 300 million from last month, on faster per-cow growth. The Class III price forecast rose to $14.30-$14.90 while the Class IV forecast fell, as lower NDM prices offset higher butter.
Higher projected milk output implies more dairy supply and lower dairy product prices, which tends to reduce demand for dairy-related feed ingredients.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.